According to Zoopla, the surge in demand for property following the easing of lockdown restrictions will carry strong house prices until the end of the year.
Even though the rebound in activity in the housing market is expected to subside in the coming weeks in England and after an expected spike here in Scotland, the elevated demand combined with stock levels 15% lower than in 2019 will create upward pressure on house prices.
Zoopla’s latest data and analysis shows that this surge may delay the fall in house prices until at least the end of this year.
The analysis of house prices comes from sales agreed before we went into lockdown. The data on pricing for new sales agreed in the last four weeks is starting to feed through already and this points to the continuing upward pressure on house prices that we saw from January to the beginning of March.
For the first three months of the year prices were rising at 7% and in England over the first two weeks of June, they have returned to registering a similar growth. The majority of these sales are likely to complete between August and October this year in England and slightly later here in Scotland. Zoopla predicts that these should result in a sustained UK house price growth of between 2% and 3% over the next quarter.
There will be an initial rebound, but demand will weaken over the summer months as the economic impact of the coronavirus lockdown starts to become evident. Last week the ONS indicated an acceleration in unemployment resulting in caution amongst lenders and the limited availability of 90% loan to value (LTV) mortgages which will reduce demand particularly amongst first-time buyers who have driven the housing market.
Last year around 20% of all homebuyers purchased a property with a deposit of up to 10% and so a decrease in the availability of 90% mortgages could prevent first-time buyers entering the market and reducing demand.
Almost 20% of homeowners have taken a mortgage payment holiday and they can extend this up to the end of October this year which means support is extended for the rest of the mortgaged sector up until April next year.
UK house price growth is up 2.4% on the year and has increased from 1.6% at the start of 2020. This rebound in housing market activity has taken many in the industry by surprise but is welcome news.
Here in Scotland, where the market reopens on Monday 29th June has seen demand rise back to pre-COVID levels, but sales remain more than two thirds lower and are expected to rebound in the coming weeks.
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